Posted on 06/04/2008 8:54:55 AM PDT by Incorrigible
By SEAN REILLY
WASHINGTON — A new government report offers a grim forecast of global warming's long-term impact on the Gulf Coast, warning that "a vast portion ... from Houston to Mobile, Ala., may be inundated in the future."
The predicted flooding, resulting from rising sea levels and sinking land surfaces, would occur within the next 50 to 100 years, according to the report, released last month by the National Science and Technology Council, a federal advisory body.
While the effects would fall outside the life spans of most adults today, they could be felt by their children and grandchildren.
Titled "Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States," the report is essentially a round-up of previous work on climate change. The section on the Gulf Coast is an adaptation of a separate study released earlier this year.
Although rising seas will threaten coastal areas around the country, the Gulf Coast "is facing much higher increases" because much of the region is subsiding as the result of soil compaction, the researchers concluded.
By a middling estimate, those increases could range from almost a foot to about 3 feet during the period in question, according to the technology council report. Separate numbers compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey indicate the increases could be considerably higher around Galveston, Texas, and New Orleans.
While levees and sea walls could provide some protection, "considerable land area is still at risk of permanent flooding from rising tides, sinking land and erosion during storms," it continues.
Also at risk: "An untenable portion of the region's road, rail and port network." Assuming a 2-foot rise in sea level, the heavily traveled CSX rail link between Mobile and New Orleans — as well as the CSX line north of Mobile — would both be affected.
A CSX spokesman said the company is aware of the forecast but is not planning any immediate action.
While labeling the potential impact on the region's transportation web "very significant," the authors add that the effects can be addressed through "adaptive strategies," but furnish no details.
Some scientists warn that time is running out for the U.S. and other industrialized countries to act before the trend toward a dramatically warmer planet becomes irreversible.
The Gulf Coast of the future will experience more "extreme temperature" days of 90 degrees and above, as well as higher average temperatures, the technology council report predicts.
Although researchers are uncertain whether average rainfall would also rise, downpours — and temporary flooding — could become more frequent. "This impact will become increasingly important as relative sea level rises," they wrote, "putting more and more of the study area at risk."
The report can be found at ClimateScience.gov.
(Sean Reilly can be contacted at sean.reilly(at)newhouse.com.)
Not for commercial use. For educational and discussion purposes only.
DOOMED!
A pole shift might do this. Sunspot number today = 0
Zero, that is, none. Smooth as a baby’s butt. Well, most babies, probably not all babies.
Wouldn't that be a "good thing"???
So...given several days warning of the hurricane wasn’t enough. Will a 50-100 year notification be enough time to get out of New Orleans?
If the earth were really warming, it would be expanding and the ocean basin volume would be growing, reducing sea levels. Also absolute humidity would increase, tending to further reduce ocean volume. Where are the global models' predictions on these phenomena?
Remember some congressman, Republican I believe, was villified for suggesting that New Orleans be rebuilt?
If the forces of Mother Nature are going to overwhelm places like New Orleans, maybe it makes sense to get out of the way?
Are they rebuilding the levees in N.O.?
The Indians told the French not to build a city there.
Remember some congressman, Republican I believe, was villified for suggesting that New Orleans NOT be rebuilt?
sorry, I meant he said New Orleans NOT be rebuilt, due to it being in a dangerous below sea level location.
Global warming also causes dandruff and excessive formation of ear wax and increases snow shoe accidents.
NO! NO! NO!...why just last night B. Hussein said that he's going to slow the rise of the oceans!
Could, might, maybe, if, but then again, maybe not. This climate science stuff is like Hollywood script writing. Come up with an idea for a story, and write in the details that make it work, facts be damned.
And being the Messiah,he’d be just the guy who could do it!! (sarc/off)
another thing is the melting of polar ice....if the polar ice melts, sea levels go down...if ya want proof, put water in a glass and mark the level...then add a bunch of ice and mark the level...when the ice melts, what happens to the level of water in the glass? the more ice, the more water is displaced, raising the level of the water....less ice, less displacement, lower levels of water...
No, no, the rise of the oceans stopped last night. I heard Obummer tell us that we were at just that moment — all because he had become the Rat nominee!
(Seriously — I live in a major subduction-earthquake zone. I don't know what the odds of the "big one" are -- but, at least there's solid science behind it.)
WE"RE DOOOOOOOOMED!!!
You ever hear the one about two economists stuck on a liferaft with only canned Spam to eat? Unless they can get the cans open, it is clear they are going to starve...
The first economist says, "What are we going to do?"
And the second one says, "No problem... First, we assume a can opener."
Didn’t we just have the coldest winter in112 years and declare warming on hiatus for 15 years??
OH no....
Are these the same people who said IN THE 70s that said the ICE AGE was coming??
“Come up with an idea for a story, and write in the details that make it work, facts be damned.”
You sound like an accomplished professor!!!
Oh, horrors! 50,000 years ago, the shoreline of North Carolina’s Outer Banks was 50 miles further east than today. Melting glaciers raised the sea level enough to reach 50 miles inland — without a single SUV contributing to the warming!!!
Or Not.....
Wow.
Just last week we were told that global warming is DRYING UP the Great Lakes due to a DECREASE in sea levels.
Are we going to drown? Or fry in the hot sun?
Isn’t that a dense argument? ;-)
“Where, Oh Where, can I find a written account of the process of deliberate, rational analysis of relevant data, by reputable and qualified scientists, that led to the conclusion that carbon dioxide, uniquely among the several substances and energy sources that contribute to the warming of our planet’s gaseous atmosphere, is responsible for the claimed current warming trend, a trend which, even as I write this, may actually have become a trend toward a lower rate of warming?”
Still waiting, impatiently and with little hope of satisfaction.
BBBooooooooooo....... :)
“A pole shift might do this. Sunspot number today = 0”
Indeed. Surprised to see nobody responded to your post. I’ve been watching this for a while now and it’s pretty surreal to see the sun without spots day after day...week after week. For those who need more education on the subject there’s a lot of good information at:
icecap.us
It’s going to be GREAT to see the CAGW blowhards like algore go down, but it won’t make up for the millions who will likely starve.
Oh, by the way, if you live on the Gulf Coast rest easy. The ocean levels should be fine for the foreseeable future.
I have this: http://www.spaceweather.com/ as one of the websites I take a look at most days.
took the test - 242 lbs. of carbon. Coupled with the fact that I’m planning to move to the Gulf Coast area of this study, I will continue to spew vast amounts of carbon.
Has anyone noticed that all the government studies harp on the damage to the South. What, NY and NE are immune?/s
And “Walk on Water”....
Wait a second. I thought that we had from "It's too late to stop this" to "we only have 10 years?" Now we have 50 - 100 years? I like that! Be dead by then! No worries!
Not to mention “Heal the Earth”
The Gulf Coast already IS a SWAMP!!!!.............
All the melting polar cap will rush down south, wash and cleanse the Boston beaches, zip down the coast, hang a right at Key West, point north and flood the gulf states.
And all that water will STAY there because the Gulf is a bowl ... with one way in and no way out.
I believe this ... don't you?
And it may not be inundated in the future.
Another mini-Ice Age coming?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/11/1130_051130_ice_age.html
Global warming here in NW Florida is not happening soon enough to suit me. The water temperature is still lower than NORMAL and the bluegills are not hitting the flies yet!! At least two weeks behind schedule!
The earth itself is not warming, just the atmosphere (and oceans). When the ocean water warms it expands and sea level rises. This has been happening (slowly) for the last century or two.
True, but they are talking about the ice on land (like Greenland). That said, there is no indication that Greenland is melting other than a bit at the edges.
The physicists point out that CO2 warms the air disproportionately to its concentration. So a bit of warming has come from the increased CO2. Their problem is that their models are vastly oversimplified and assume that water vapor magnifies that increase. It does sometimes, but not here today for example (mesoscale convective systems approaching the midatlantic). Their models don’t include mesoscale weather at all.
I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in the sunspots saving us. For one thing the numbers don’t matter much, only the cycle length. The stretched out cycle could start cooling the earth in a decade or two, but by then the warmers can do lots of damage to the economy.
So it has little to do with CO2 and climate change at all!!! Jeeez!
Shouldn't someone hold their feet to the fire if they are not including dirt temperatures?
IT's not? Al Gore says it is. If the Earth is not warming, what's up with Global Warming hysteria?
“I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in the sunspots saving us. For one thing the numbers don’t matter much, only the cycle length. The stretched out cycle could start cooling the earth in a decade or two, but by then the warmers can do lots of damage to the economy.”
We’re further into the process than you’re thinking. The next cycle was already due and the Sun is showing no sign. If the “blank slate” continues to the end of the year it’s the extra-long variety. The next cycle is already forecast to be weak and long. BTW, we’re already in a 10-year cooling trend.
icecap.us
McCain ‘08! HE SUCKS LESS!
(Granted, not really on this particular issue. I doubt he supports reversing the ridiculous “threatened” polar bear status...)
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