Posted on 06/27/2008 7:19:17 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
In an election today in Indiana, Barack Obama takes 48% of the vote, John McCain 47% of the vote -- a statistical tie -- according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati.
Obama's 1-point lead is within the survey's 4 percentage point margin of sampling error, and these results should be reported as a tie.
Among men, McCain leads by 5; among women, Obama leads by 7 -- a 12-point gender gap.
Among voters age 18 to 49, Obama leads by 5; among voters 50+, McCain leads by 3. Obama leads by 22 points among voters under age 35. 16% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain; Independents favor Obama by 7 points.
Among those voters who say they have already made up their minds, the two candidates are tied; among the 25% who say they could still change their mind, Obama leads by 2.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
I can’t buy this.
Indiana? C’mon. If Barack wins Indiana, he’ll win 47 states.
Nah, just 42. Of course, if oil gets to $200 by November, he can well win 47.
Since April 1, 6 polls have been conducted in Indiana. 3 give Obama the lead. I agree with you and don’t think he’ll win Indiana, but we’re not quite out of the woodshed yet.
Face it. We are in a 1932 moment.
Or, more appropriately, we are in an 1862 moment at Fredricksburg, with General McCain Burnside about to order massive charges up the hill with no hope of victory.
I grew up in southern Indiana (Jeffersonville). And I honestly think I was the only Republican there.
I just can’t see white, blue collar voters in OH (or MI, or PA) voting for a black guy with a Muslim name, who also has an elitist attitude.
I try to keep a lid on the swearing, but I have a feeling that the most commonly uttered phrase out of my mouth is going to be “f**king idiots” for the next several months.
In 1952, Eisenhower was already double digits ahead of Stevenson at this time. This year, with a few notable exceptions, nationwide polls and the aggregate of state polls show this race to be tight.
At one level, e.g., economic conditions, things look bad for the incumbent party.
At another level, e.g., number of people who identfy themselves as liberal, moderate, conservative, and the perception of people as to whether the candidates are liberal, moderate or conservative, things look bad for the liberal candidate.
Thus, there are reasons to think: (1) the election will be close, (2) the election will break to Obama, and (3) the election will break to McCain.
Those who say it will definitely be (2), or will definitely be (3) reveal more about themselves than about the conditions on the ground. The only thing that can be said at this point, is that the race is close and can break either way.
I’m in Marion County, Obama yard signs are everywhere...... saw my first McCain sign this past week.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Dems did well in Indiana in ‘06. I hope they are not going the way of CO, VA, and other states. Hard to believe Obama would have a shot in a state Bush carried with 59%, and which has not gone Demo since 1964!
If Obama is up by 1 in IN though, then it makes no sense that McCain would be leading in MO by 7. The numbers are just all over the place, and so many polls contradict one another. Hard to know if any are even accurate.
1) He's well known. Voters don't have to "figure out who John McCain is," so he's not going to be "convincing" people. They already don't like him compared to Obama.
2) He has no ground game at all. I've been active in OH politics for about 10 years, and his ground game here is dead.
3) He's not a gifted or particularly quick speaker who can win it in the debates.
Therefore, 4) this isn't going to be like 1984 or even 2004, where SOME (certainly not all) early polls had the eventual winner behind.
Oh, and 5) He is close or trailing in states where he should be kicking Obama's butt---Indiana, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio.
NOT until after a few debated will I believe these wacko polls. They’re all over the map! The debates will be the deciding factor for both candidate. The Beast was done in by one of those! SO CHEER UP there’s still hope for McPAIN!!
1. Right now the public hates the GOP, because of Bush, the war and the economy. The environment hasn't been more hostile to Republicans at all levels since 1974. If the election is a classic GOP vs. Democrat election, we lose and we lose bad.
2. The public is very suspicious, and I think rightfully so, of Barack Obama. If the election is a referendum on Barack Obama and his personality, we will win.
3. John McCain, I think, is more or less irrelevant in this calculation. Nobody's going to vote for John McCain. They'll either vote for or against Barack Obama, or for or against George W. Bush, depending on the landscape in November.
I agree... It will be a blood-letting of massive proportions... The ONLY way McCain has a shot is to take the fight to him. Stop being Mr. Nice Guy (above the fray)... If he continues on the current path, we’re looking at a 55%-45% Obomination.
Of course he isn't. He might squeak out a win, but I doubt it.
Polls always skew to the Dems this early, because they always gather a lead in the meaningless rhetoric and positive press coverage department.
McCain will close when people start realizing that Obama is a Marxist and will surrender our foreign policy to the UN Security Council.
Plus, there are scores of people who want the poll-taker to like them, so they tell them what they think they want to hear.
White women, closeted racist democrats, pro-gun people, lunch pail non-marxist union members, muddle-brained moderates, old people, are all going to swing to McCain.
Obama's already "got" all the people he's getting. In the coming months, many of those people who are in Obama's camp with one foot, will slowly step away.
Change shmange. The guy's a hazard.
I'm not one to throw out poll results because I don't like what they say but it seems that the Survey USA polls have had a lot of weird results. Obama winning Indiana just doesn't pass the smell test. I'm beginning to take all Survey USA polls with a grain of salt.
Here in the Hoosier state, many people I talk to say, “ nobody has any money”. Woe are Hoosiers if we elect O.
Uh-uh. Not gonna happen.
I was incredulous that a station like CNN would air part of one of their election coverage programs to explore the idea that people are lying to the pollsters for one unique reason, unique being that this is the very first black presidential candidate ever. Most people don’t want to even think about this much less talk about it. But there are some people who are never going to vote for a black candidate no matter what they say to a pollster or anyone else. Just a fact of life and I suspect this is probably more pronounced with the oldsters in our midst. What was it they called it, the “Bradley effect”?
Hell I don’t either, and electing Obama sure isn’t going to help!
Indiana “used to be rock solid GOP”. It isn’t anymore.
I don’t see much interest on the GOP side for the candidate here. People may not go vote for Obama, but they really won’t make much of an effort to vote McCain.
The GOP here was rock solid conservative. I think people are not so interested in the global type, open borders republican.
I’m still remaining cautiously optimistic.
Most indicators show McCain gaining a bit the last few days. I think Obama has peaked, aside from probably a small convention bounce he’ll get.
I still think we’re gonna be pleasantly surprised come Election Night.
McCain will win a couple surprise states. Obama might win some surprises too, but I give the edge, and the win, to McCain, at this point.
Granted, several articles today have made me more nervous.
INDIANA: U.S Presidential election 2004 Bush 60% Kerry 39%
Obama's money makes this a very dangerous situation.
" In the case of the recent L.A. Times poll, this mix was 39% Democrats and 22% Republicans."
Today:
31.6% Republican 41.7% DemocratNovember 2004
37.1% Republican 38.6 Democrat
If more Democrats self-report in 2008 than in 2004, it's quite possible that more voters think of themselves as Democrats today -- certainly the '06 elections would seem to indicate that.
"Not Obama" will NOT get that kind of effort out.
In Indiana, many people in the southern parts of this state, and other rural areas, were like Reagan Democrats. They were dems, but liked Reagan on guns and social issues.
We have been losing them. 2006 was where it really took steam.
McCain is a real problem here. Job losses and globalism isn’t popular out of the cities. People is those parts dumped the GOP because the dems convinced them we are selling out to foreigners. Dems made a big deal out of it.
Hate of one person or his policies can get you some votes, but you need to believe in your candidate to energize enough of them to go to the polls...
Case in point... Rick Lazio... There were plenty of folks who despised Hillary when she first ran... Almost no one voted for Rick Lazio- the votes he got were anti-Hillary or anti-Dem...
You need a mix of enthusiasm for your candidate AND disdain for the opposition to achieve a plurality of the vote, IMHO.
I really think the rust-belt, with Ohio, and Indiana, will switch to H.
Our RINO GOP governor, he has done some good things, keeps pushing to get land for that damn China to Mexico to the US to Canada toll road, through here.
It has really hurt the GOP in a bad way. People don’t take kindly that own the land through the state they would confiscate to build it.
Thats why a lot of the GOP was ousted in 2006. The folks were po’ed.
I do smell trouble here in November. I haven’t seen a single McCain yard sign.
This region may be an outlier, but can't be THAT much of an outlier... ALL of the enthusiasm is on H's side... That spells TROUBLE for us
My parents have always voted for the GOP. They are in their early 80’s.
My dad mentioned to me that he isn’t going to vote this year because all of them are democrats.
They are like many others. Their church friends must feel the same as them. Just not interested.
Multiply that times thousands.
I still have to assume the GOP really did not want to win this time. We have the wrong candidate and everyone is going to pay for it. Another McDole year.
My brother’s been moderately conservative all of his life.. All of a sudden, HE seens H as the messiah, and can’t wait to go to the polls and vote for him... He’s NEVER voted before, but is enthusiastic about this election.
Sad isn’t it? Makes me wonder how well we could have done with a younger, more vibrant candidate that would have been on the right side of the issues go up against empty suit Obama.
Guess we will never know. I suppose the old man could win if something really awful comes out about Obama. Even with that, people will probably keep their blinders on and vote for him anyway.
Like it or not, Romney was that person...
Actually, I agree. I was watching Romney the other day on Fox. He was very bright, affable, and he has a great sense of humour. I was thinking how much charisma the guy has. He is more liberal than Hunter, the guy I was for from the beginning, but I think he could have given Obama a good run for it. I gues folks don’t like Mormons. Didn’t bother me, but some it did.
Damn shame.
Oh, yeah, *omney the lying liberal scourge would’ve beaten the false Messiah in a landslide. I have a bridge across the Hudson Bay I’d like to sell you, too.
And P.S., as bad as McCain is, he’ll carry Indiana no problem. Even Dole didn’t sweat carrying the state.
Dolts like yourself, bashing Romney at every turn, gave us McCain... Nice job
The guy has the drive, was speaking to all of the conservative issues, has the money, the smarts, the experience, was an outsider, has the looks and gravitas, and looked far more youthful than his years... He would have been a far better alternative to McLame
I’ll keep bashing liberal termites (and their enablers and sycophantic worshippers) infesting the Republican party. Deal with it.
And I didn’t give you McCain... you did. I supported the only viable Conservative in the primary, Fred Thompson.
Creepy Gore-like obsession with the Presidency.
"was speaking to all of the conservative issues,"
Rolling the rubes.
"has the money,"
All the better to bribe the weak-willed and unprincipled.
"the smarts,"
Like a con-man.
"the experience,"
"Hey, look, ma ! I destroyed a whole state party, appointed a liberal pro-gay marriage and killer-freeing judiciary, and enacted Socialist healthcare all by myself ! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE !"
"was an outsider,"
A Democrat agent.
"has the looks"
He has the hair. 'Course you guys could spare us and go get a room.
"and gravitas,"
To audaciously lie his ass off.
"and looked far more youthful than his years..."
Definitely the quality one looks for in a President. Style over substance. A termite hotel with a pretty facade. *omney was our man, everything a liberal rodent does, except he's an "R".
Your hate of Romney is SICK. You are really despicable.
Fred Thompson never had a chance. He never had the fire in the belly, dolt
Your worship of *omney is SICK. You are really despicable.
I understand, dolt. You wanted a liberal RINO nominee. Your agenda was exposed long ago.
Nope - you’re the one whose hate is petty and disgraceful, you bigot.
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