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Posted on 07/25/2008 6:33:44 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3

Despite the devastation hurricanes Katrina and Rita wrought on Louisiana in 2005, a large number of coastal residents still say they would refuse to evacuate if another hurricane zeroes in on the state, a Harvard University survey shows.

“Even though the percentages of people not prepared or who wouldn’t evacuate are small, those numbers add up to the thousands in a metropolitan area like New Orleans,” said Tami Buhr of Harvard’s School of Public Health and one of the survey’s researchers. “That’s a lot of people still at risk.”

The survey was conducted between May 27 and June 23 when researchers called 5,055 people who live in a county or parish within 20 miles of the coast in eight states: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.

This is the third year Harvard has conducted the survey.

“I think what we find most surprising is the results haven’t changed much in the three years we’ve been doing this,” Buhr said. “That tells me that the behaviors and attitudes are pretty ingrained.”

The survey shows that in most areas, Louisiana residents are better prepared than the residents of the other seven states.

At the same time, the survey shows that Louisiana’s residents are also more worried than the respondents in the other seven states about problems they might have during and after another hurricane.

Those problems include: not enough gasoline, food, water, medical care, cash on hand as well as the threat of injuries, violence, and heat exhaustion.

“There is no doubt that these worries are the result of Hurricane Katrina and the personal experiences they’ve had,” Buhr said. “Their worries are based on reality.”

In Louisiana, 17 percent of the respondents said they would not evacuate if the government said they had to because another major hurricane was headed toward the state.

And 15 percent said they believe they would be safer if they stayed in their homes rather than evacuate.

“This is the No. 1 reason people give for not evacuating,” Buhr said of people believing their homes are safe. “If Hurricane Katrina didn’t change that view, it’s pretty discouraging.”

Another 19 percent said if they had to evacuate, they would need help, but 41 percent of those said they had not yet lined up anyone to help them.

Buhr said these people are the most vulnerable.

“Many of them are sick or disabled and have no way to leave,” she said. “Generally, they have less money and resources than other people and they don’t know who to call or who they can rely on.”

Buhr said researchers hope information like this will show public officials where help is needed.

“Once public officials have a sense of what they’re dealing with, it is hoped that they can come up with new ways to tell people how to get help,” Buhr said.

Jerry Sneed, director of the Office of Preparedness for the City of New Orleans, said that trying to persuade people they should evacuate is a challenge.

“People come up with every possible excuse they can think of to stay — like something will happen to their house if they leave,” Sneed said. “We try and answer each and every one of those issues. When they worry about vandalism, we say we’ll provide extra security.”

“I don’t know why they’re so reluctant,” he added. “It’s as if they don’t trust anybody.”

New Orleans has even asked churches to help get the word out.

“Local ministers are helping by discussing this during their services,” he said. “I don’t know why people are so reluctant, but I think we’re getting our point across.”

Mark Cooper, director of the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, said he’s “happy that we’re doing better than the other states but the numbers in the survey are still alarming.”

In May, the state kicked off a public information campaign, called Get a Game Plan, to urge residents to prepare for a hurricane, Cooper said.

The campaign’s goal is to educate people that in the event of a hurricane they are responsible for themselves, their family and their pets for at least the first three days, Cooper said.

“What’s happening is human nature,” Cooper said. “As time passes, apathy has set in. That’s why it’s important to keep the idea that they are personally responsible for themselves at the forefront of their minds.”

But educating the public can be challenging when some residents have strange ideas, Buhr said.

Even though FEMA, the state and an assortment of other governmental agencies have told people that mobile homes are dangerous to stay in during a storm, 17 percent of respondents living in mobile homes in the eight states surveyed said they would not evacuate in the event of a hurricane.

Nearly one in four, or 23 percent, said they believe their mobile homes would survive a Category 3 or stronger storm.

“That’s amazing and frightening,” Buhr said. “It’s hard to understand how someone in a mobile home could think their home can withstand hurricane-strength winds. It’s a head-scratcher.”

Only 5 percent of Louisiana respondents said they would go to a shelter run by the Red Cross or the government.

And 72 percent said that if they had to go to a shelter, they would be worried about the shelter’s conditions and their safety while they were there.

“I think that comes from the images they saw of those who went to the Superdome,” Buhr said. “That’s a powerful image that is sticking with them.”

And there appears to be a lingering problem of what to do with pets — a problem that plagued rescuers after Hurricane Katrina.

Twenty percent of Louisiana’s respondents said they did not know of a place where they could go and take their pets if they had to evacuate.

“This issue with pets is a big problem. It was a problem during Katrina and during the recent Midwestern floods,” Buhr said. “Officials need to know that this is going to be a barrier to getting people out and it has to be addressed.”

Overall, Buhr said, the study shows that the majority of people are prepared.

“But there’s still a slice of the population that isn’t prepared,” she said. “The pictures and images of Katrina have stuck with a lot of people and I don’t think anyone wants to see that repeated.”

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