Free Republic

A new Battleground Poll from the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D) shows John McCain with a 1-point lead over Barack Obama among likely voters with leaners. The poll was conducted August 10-14 with a sample of 1,000 LVs and margin of error of +/- 3.1%: McCain 47 (nc vs last poll in May) Obama 46 (-3) Undecided 7 (+2) Obama's lead in the RCP National Avg continues to slide, down to just 1.2%.

The latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin among likely voters. And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%. This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month,...

According to the rolling average at RealClearPolitics, McCain has narrowed Obama's lead to 1.9 points, and Obama has hit a four month low in his polling numbers.

Sen. John McCain has pulled a nickel ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in the Reuters/Zogby poll, marking the first time the Arizona Senator has taken any lead in this monthly poll. The poll conducted last Thursday through Saturday came on the heels of the Russian invasion of Georgia -- the same time period that Obama vacationed in Hawaii, giving McCain the advantage of reinforcing his foreign policy positions.

McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of Ohio voters, compared to 47% for Obama. He also has the support of 87% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats.

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's lead in Minnesota appears to be narrowing. The latest Rasmussen poll, released late last week, showed the Illinois senator with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. The poll suggests that McCain is closing the gap on Obama, who in an earlier Rasmussen poll was up by 12 points. That makes Minnesota, which was once rated as leaning for Obama, a toss-up, according to RealClearPolitics, a political Web site. All three major polls taken over the last three months -- from Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and SurveyUSA -- all show Obama...

CNN) — In what could be an ominous sign for Barack Obama just days before he is formally named the Democratic presidential nominee, a new CNN poll of polls out Tuesday shows the Illinois senator's lead over John McCain has been cut in half in recent days. According to CNN's average of several recent national surveys, Obama's lead is now a slim 3 points over the Arizona senator, 46-43 percent — half of his advantage in a CNN poll of polls one week ago, and down from a high of 8 points in mid-July. Election Center: Check out CNN's electoral...

Barack Obama 264 -- John McCain 274 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

On Eve of Obama Selection of Running Mate, McCain Takes Lead in Indiana Race for White House: In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3. Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend,...

Every Tuesday, I'm generating a map based on pollster.com's running averages of all reported state presidential polls and a map showing the trend. The map shows the states sized in proportion to their electoral votes.

Pennsylvania's Gov. Ed Rendell told PolitikerPA, a political Web site, that "Early on, I said I would cast my ballot for Sen. Clinton, I'm going to cast my ballot for her, and then the moment I cast my vote, I'm going to continue to enthusiastically support Sen. Obama. It's going to be a good release for all of us." Rendell spokesman Chuck Ardo confirmed to the Tribune-Review via email Rendell's statement with this response: "He (Rendell) will vote for Senator Clinton on the first ballot as part of his commitment as a pledged delegate. He will then support Sen. Obama...

On Eve of Obama Selection of Running Mate, McCain Takes Lead in Indiana Race for White House: In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3. Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend,...

McCain leads by two after Rasmussen had him trailing by two one month ago. Internals show Obama is viewed unfavorably by 48% of Florida voters, including 57% of white voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Florida's voters and unfavorably by 36%.

The presidential race remains tight, with respondents to a Times/Bloomberg poll choosing Obama by 45% to McCain's 43%, a statistical dead heat. Obama's race remains an issue with many voters. Barack Obama's public image has eroded this summer amid a daily onslaught of attacks from Republican rival John McCain, leaving the race for the White House statistically tied, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released today. Far more voters say McCain has the right experience to be president, the poll found. More than a third have questions about Obama's patriotism. The survey also illustrates some of the campaign's racial...

Obama up by one. McCain looking good when this weekend poll ends.

One of the more puzzling questions in election polling this year is why isn't Barack Obama doing better in the polls? In a year when outgoing president George W. Bush has an approval rating around 30%, when less than 20% of Americans are satisfied with conditions in the United States, when Democrats have had the largest advantages in party ID they have enjoyed in recent memory, and when Americans have a much more positive view of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party, Democrat Obama has held only a modest lead over Republican John McCain, averaging just 3 points...

a mind numbing amount of numbers, but here is the money quote! "Obama appeared to enjoy a 2 week bump, or at least a lull, where his official numbers didn’t change, and the count with leaners bumped him over the 300 mark again for 2 weeks, however, both of those numbers are now heading back down again. Obama now has his lowest Electoral College total since June 24th, before I made my methodology change, while the count with leaners is close to where it was 2 weeks ago, and back under 300. The only comforting news for Obama may be...

American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia and now trails the Democrat 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in a July 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In this latest survey, Democrats say 48 - 31 percent that Obama is better qualified to deal with Russia, while Sen. McCain is seen as better by Republicans 86 - 5 percent and independent voters...

John McCain has picked up a little ground on Barack Obama, now trailing by only two points in a recent SurveyUSA poll in MN, and by seven in WA. However, McCain has gained significantly in WA: Obama was down four, McCain up five from the last poll. Both are of LIKELY voters.

The AOL straw poll obviously tilts more towards McCain than any scientic poll - the latest has an astonishing 3-to-1 (76% - 24%) 50-state lead for McCain. I suspect AOL users are older and more white than the public at large. I think however it is useful for tracking trends - over the last 2 months it has exhibited weekly a consistent trend toward McCain. There was a huge drop-off in the last week for Obama. By way of calibration I found 2004 AOL straw poll data that showed Bush led Kerry by "only" 58% - 40% (48 states) on...

According to a KSTP exclusive new SurveyUSA poll, Barack Obama leads John McCain by two points, 47 to 45 percent in Minnesota. That's well within the three-point-eight percent margin of error. Four percent prefer another candidate. Only four percent are undecided. The poll not only shows a close race, but also points again to Minnesota voters becoming increasingly polarized. In the poll of 682 "likely voters," McCain has the support of 89 percent of republicans. Obama garners support from 86 percent of democrats. McCain has a narrow two-point lead among independents. McCain does have a bit of a gender-gap to...

The presidential race is tightening in New York, where Senator Obama's lead has slipped by 10 points since June. Mr. Obama is currently ahead of Senator McCain at 47 to 39%, according to a poll released today, a healthy advantage that has nevertheless deteriorated significantly over the course of the summer. The poll, conducted by the Siena Research Institute, also indicated that Governor Paterson's "call to action" on the state's budget crisis is resonating with voters. Nearly half of them describe the New York's fiscal condition as poor, yet the governor's approval ratings are increasing. Mr. Obama is currently 8...

There are no nonpartisan state polls today for anything. PPP (D) released a poll of Ohio showing it tied at 45% each. Ohio is no doubt going to be a huge battleground again. In Gallup's national tracking poll, Obama and McCain are tied at 45% each. In Rassmusen's tracking poll, Obama is barely ahead, 47% to 45%.A quirk of the schedule this year may benefit the Republicans. Normally each candidate gets a bounce in the polls after his convention. However, the Democratic convention is followed immediately by John McCain's birthday, which will put him back in the spotlight and then...

Jim Martin, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate after defeating Vernon Jones in a run-off primary election earlier this month, is now trailing incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss by just six percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Peach State finds the incumbent ahead of his challenger 48% to 43%. When “leaners” are included, Chambliss leads 50% to 44%. Though the latest numbers could represent a temporary primary “glow” for Martin, the poll marks the lowest level of support for the incumbent since tracking of this year’s election began.

August 18, 2008POLL: Siena New York (8/11-14)By Eric Dienstfrey Siena College 8/11-14/08; 627 RV, 3.9% Mode: Live Telephone Interviews New York State Obama 47, McCain 39 (July: Obama 50, McCain 37)

OKLAHOMA CITY - Even Democratic officials concede Republican John McCain will beat Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Oklahoma.

Battleground States Obama McCain Spread, Colorado 45.3 45.8 McCain +0.5 Virginia 45.7 46.3 McCain +0.6 Missouri 45.0 47.3 McCain +2.3 Michigan 46.0 42.8 Obama +3.2 Ohio 45.3 46.8 McCain +1.5 Florida 45.4 47.2 McCain +1.8

As more and more attention is paid to Barack Obama's failure to stake out a solid, sustained poll lead in the presidential race (as of Sunday, the Gallup daily tracking survey pegged the contest a flat-out tie), more and more attention focuses on the often unspoken -- race -- as a key factor. In a recent New York magazine piece, John Heilemann wrote: "Call me crazy, but isn't it possible, just possible, that Obama's lead is being inhibited by the fact that he is, you know, black? ... The desire to ignore the elephant in the room is easy to...

Barack Obama 275 John McCain 263

Raleigh, N.C. – John McCain has pulled even with Barack Obama in Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. Obama had led in PPP’s June and July polls of the state. It’s 45-45 with 10% undecided. One factor causing Obama problems is that he’s not doing as good a job as McCain of getting folks in his party to vote for him. While McCain leads 89-7 among Republicans, Obama’s lead is a narrower 75-17 among Democrats. Obama has the 45-28 edge with independent voters. The Democrats neglecting to choose Obama are disproportionately white, female, and middle aged,...

Ohio: McCain vs. Obama

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking for Aug. 14-16 finds John McCain and Barack Obama tied at 45% in the latest presidential election trial heat.

Democrat Barack Obama will have to overcome tepid support from white voters and their high regard for Republican John McCain as an honest and principled leader if he intends to win North Carolina in the presidential election. Obama has said he can bring traditionally Republican states into play, particularly in the South. He launched his general election campaign in Raleigh, has aired TV ads in North Carolina and has opened more than a dozen campaign offices across the state. But a new poll from The Charlotte Observer and NewsChannel 36 shows that North Carolinians believe McCain would be a better...

Obama 228, McCain 163, Toss Ups 147 | No Toss Ups: Obama 295, McCain 243

A political battle for the ages may become a battle of the ages. Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are neck-and-neck in Colorado, solidifying the state as a key, swing area that will be pivotal in deciding who becomes the next president of the U.S., according to a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll released Friday. "It's a heck of a horse race in Colorado," said pollster Lori Weigel. "We're officially a purple state now." The poll revealed sharp divisions among voters by age and geography, with the candidates' approaches to economic issues a key to winning the state. "There...

Who do you think you will vote for in the Presidential election in November? Barack Obama: 41% John McCain: 40%

The Gallup daily tracking poll showed Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 44 percent Friday for the third time in two weeks.

Republicans Grow More Hopeful About McCain By Jim Malone Washington 15 August 2008 Republicans who support Senator John McCain for president are growing increasingly confident that their candidate is gaining momentum in his race for the White House with the presumptive Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama. VOA National correspondent Jim Malone reports from Washington. 2008 was supposed to be a Democratic year. Opinion polls have shown growing voter concerns about the U.S. economy, general unhappiness with President Bush and a desire for change. Despite those Democratic advantages, surveys also show the presidential race between Senators Obama and McCain to be...

Gallup Tracking: McCain 44% Obama 44% (ALL TIED UP)

PRINCETON, NJ -- If the election were held today, registered voters would be equally likely to vote for John McCain (44%) or Barack Obama (44%), according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update. The Aug. 12-14 polling shows a slight dip in Obama's support, which had ranged between 46% and 48% (averaging 47%) in August. McCain has averaged 43% support among registered voters so far in August. Thus, the closer margin seen in today's results is due more to movement away from Obama than toward McCain. Twelve percent of registered voters now say they are undecided or supporting another...

If the election were held today, registered voters would be equally likely to vote for John McCain (44%) or Barack Obama (44%), according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update. The Aug. 12-14 polling shows a slight dip in Obama's support, which had ranged between 46% and 48% (averaging 47%) in August. McCain has averaged 43% support among registered voters so far in August. Thus, the closer margin seen in today's results is due more to movement away from Obama than toward McCain. Twelve percent of registered voters now say they are undecided or supporting another candidate, which is...

GENERATION OBAMA FIRST-TIME VOTERS ARE GLOBAL, DIVERSE, COLORBLIND - AND LOVE BARACK By JOHN ZOGBY Are the kids all right? Not if you listen to some of our leading social commentators. To hear people like Juliet Schor and William Bennett tell it, today's youth have been virtually brainwashed by marketers, advertisers, and a mushy-headed professoriate. But if your measure of "all right" is a group that is not just tolerant of but welcomes diversity, if it is young adults who march in lockstep with no political ideology, who in the majority are willing to think through the subtleties of some...

Much of Barack Obama’s 12-point lead over John McCain has disappeared in Minnesota. He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters. With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads 49% to 45% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.)

President Bush’s latest ratings among all adults are 25 percent positive and 74 percent negative. These are virtually unchanged from June when they were 24 percent positive and 75 percent negative; Congress is in even worse shape with less than one in five Americans (18%) giving them positive ratings and over three-quarters (77%) giving them negative ratings. However, this is slightly better than in June when only 13 percent gave them positive marks and 83 percent negative ones; Neither congressional Democrats, who control both houses of Congress, nor congressional Republicans are seen in a better light.

Much of Barack Obama’s 12-point lead over John McCain has disappeared in Minnesota. He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters. With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads 49% to 45% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.) Last month the Democrat had a 49% to 37% lead on McCain. In June he was ahead 52% to 39%. McCain is now supported by 91% of Republicans, up from 79% a month ago. Obama earns the vote from 89% of Democrats, down two points...

The race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes is about as close as it can be on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%. While McCain’s advantage is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has been ahead in Colorado in seven monthly polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports this year. It’s also the first time that McCain has reached the 47% level...

Newsmax.com Zogby: First Globals Are Redefining America Wednesday, August 13, 2008 8:44 PM By: David A. Patten A demographic earthquake is taking place in America that is transforming our traditional society, argues pollster John Zogby in his newly released book, “The Way We’ll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream.” And these changes could have seismic implications for the coming 2008 election showdown. This new ascending group of Americans Zogby calls the “First Globals,” and unlike other demographic groups such as “Generation X” or “baby boomers,” this group is making some radical departures from traditional American...

Barack Obama has a three percentage point advantage over John McCain in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of registered voters' presidential preferences, 46% to 43%. These data are based on Aug. 11-13 polling, and reflect a stable period for voter preferences. Since the beginning of August, Obama's support been either 46% or 47% for all but one day of Gallup tracking (48% in Aug. 10-12 polling) and McCain's has been 42% or 43% for all but one day (44% in Aug. 3-5 polling

Nearly half of Americans (47%) believe the government should require all radio and television stations to offer equal amounts of conservative and liberal political commentary, but they draw the line at imposing that same requirement on the Internet. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say leave radio and TV alone, too. At the same time, 71% say it is already possible for just about any political view to be heard in today’s media, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Twenty percent (20%) do not agree. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the government should not require websites and blog sites that offer...